Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
