Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
